Technical advisory panel member Dr Giridhara Babu urges all to observe precautions, warns that city will otherwise run out of hospital beds
With earlier predictions of Bengaluru seeing 6,500 Covid-positive cases by around April 20 cast to the wind as the city has already recorded around that figure on April 9, the latest projections are that Bengaluru could witness a whopping 20,000 positive cases by May 1 and, worse, around 35,000 cases by May 15.
Dr Giridhara Babu, Professor and Head, Life Course Epidemiology, at Public Health Foundation of India and a member of the technical advisory committee advising the state government on Covid-19, said the situation may well go out of control.
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Positive cases in the city have seen a huge surge since the last fortnight, and BBMP is now tasked with conducting 1 lakh Covid tests daily.
Participating in a television debate on Friday, Dr Babu said it was crucial to break the Covid transmission chain which is increasing day by day and creating panic among Bengalureans.
Dr Babu said that according to mathematical modeling, “we were expecting around 5,800 positive cases by April 15 but we have already recorded 6,034 positive cases by Thursday midnight itself.” These figures should be reflected in Friday’s health bulletin of the Karnataka Health Department.
‘35,000 cases by May 15’
He said the virus had achieved its ‘target’ well in advance of predictions. Going by the current speed of transmission, by May 1 Bengaluru could see 16,000 to 20,000 positive cases and by May 15 the number could go up to 35,000 cases.
As per mathematical projections, if even 10% of an assumed 20,000 daily cases reguire hospitalisation, Bengaluru may require around 2,000 beds on a daily basis in hospitals. If this continues, the entire hospital system will collapse, he warned.
“As a technical advisory committee, our aim is to bring all these issues to the notice of people and the government without creating panic. No one wants a lockdown, but if we do not want to follow any kind of restrictions on our own, we won’t be able to control the surge in Covid cases,” Dr Babu said.
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