At this rate, the next projection of 35,000 daily cases by May 15 is sure to be exceeded well in advance
Nearly a week in advance of experts’ predictions Bengaluru touching a whopping 20,000 daily Covid-positive cases by May 1, that figure has already been passed on Sunday, April 25 – five days prior to the projections. Sunday’s figure was 20,733 cases and it now increasingly looks like the state capital could see the next projected peak of 35,000 daily infections way before the estimated date of May 15.
The scenario seems to bear out the dire prediction of Dr Giridhara Babu, Professor and Head, Life Course Epidemiology, at Public Health Foundation of India and a member of the Technical Advisory Committee of the state government, that the situation has well and truly gone out of control.
Dr Babu’s earlier prediction of Bengaluru seeing 6,500 Covid-positive cases by around April 20 was cast to the wind as the city recorded around that figure on April 9. Later, he projected a whopping 20,000 positive cases in Bengaluru by May 1 and, worse, around 35,000 cases by May 15. But now, Bengaluru has already recorded 20,733 cases on April 25 itself, bearing out the huge surge in infections since the last one month.
Dr Babu’s predictions were on the basis of mathematical modeling. Earlier, he had said “The virus had achieved its ‘target’ well in advance of predictions. Going by the current speed of transmission, by May 15 the number could go up to 35,000 cases.”
As per mathematical projections, if even 10% of an assumed 20,000 daily cases require hospitalisation, Bengaluru may require around 2,000 beds on a daily basis in hospitals. If this continues, the entire hospital system will collapse, he warned.
In his latest response to the situation, Dr Babu, in his personal capacity, has recommended a strict 14-day statewide lockdown.
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